Showing posts with label revenue. Show all posts
Showing posts with label revenue. Show all posts

Monday, March 04, 2013

AVG Technologies 2012 Revenue - View Far From Investment Firms



The below is a quick look at AVG Technologies’ 2012 revenues.  The bulk of the figures below are from AVG Technologies Form 6-K, available on their web site.  Disclosure - I can comfortably talk with the “smartest guys in the room” and even own multiple suits.  This is not a look at the marketing strategy.  Just some bullet point observations from afar about revenue, net income, cash.

March 7 addendum -  CEO JR Smith  resigns -  AVG Technologies N.V. (AVG) said J.R. Smith will step down as chief executive after a six-year tenure at the helm of the Internet and mobile-security provider, which is conducting a search for his successor. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130307-715759.html  He is remaining  on the board.
  • Overall revenue up 31% to $356 million - Good.  Subscription based revenue was up 12% while platform based revenue was up 65%.  Platform based revenue now comprises  45% of AVG’s revenue (Can you say Google?).  
  • In a Seeking Alpha article - “AVG: Feb 1st Google Policy Updates Threaten AVG's Growth Engine, Signals Steep Downside”.  Google would require companies to make use of “opt-out” instead of having “opt-in” checked automatically on the customer’s behalf.  The author of the article, Eiad Asbahi, is forecasting reduced revenue for AVG because of this.  http://kensek.blogspot.com/2013/02/avg-technologies-ipo-one-year-birthday.html
  • Net income dropped 44% to $46 million in 2012 from 2011.  This usually isn’t a good thing, especially when revenue is up 31%.  Not a sustainable model.
  • Gross profit margin dropped 3% from 89% to 86%.  Most industries would be envious, even with the decline.
  • From Motley Fool. Short shares as a percent of float 18.6%.  For Symantec, the figure is 1.6%.
  • From Motley Fool.  Short shares increase between January 31 and February 15, 278.5%.  Ouch for both of the figures from Motley Fool.  One would like investors to have confidence that the stock will go up.  http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/04/shorts-are-piling-into-these-stocks-should-you-22.aspx
  • Current ratio Symantec – 1.06.  Current ratio – AVG Technologies  - .54.
  • Happiness is positive cash flow -AVG has been generating cash.
An interesting statement in the notes - "The Company’s profit and loss tax charge varies from period to period and has shown significant variations from its cash tax charge.  In particular, the Company’s entry into an innovation tax regime in the Netherlands resulted in a significant tax credit in June 2011, which will be reversed in future periods.You have to love companies with offices in the Netherlands, and Ireland, and bank in the Cayman Islands.  All legal.  All companies with some combination of these should be required to state the number of square feet dedicated to the company  that they rent in these locations. No counting shared conference rooms. And a picture of the Post Office box.   For a discussion on some of this:  



It should be an interesting year two for AVG Technologies as a public company following their IPO (initial public offering).  They appear to have an increasing reliance on securing mobile devices.  They just announced a deal with Samsung in the UK for purchasers of Samsung mobile users to download AVG’s mobile product for  free .  On the laptop/PC side and  on the free download side, Avast had 1.21 million downloads on www.download.com  versus 0.87 million for AVG Free Antivirus for the week ending March 3.  However,  CEO JR Smith has stated that AVG has been diversifying their product line. Perhaps this gap compared to Avast  is to be expected. Avast cancelled their IPO over a year ago.


Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Slowing Revenues and Declining Income at Trend Micro Helping Kaspersky in Efforts to Reach Number Three



In the paid desktop antivirus and internet security world, Symantec and McAfee have generally been recognized as the 800-pound gorillas with Trend Micro trailing at number three.  Kaspersky founder Eugene Kaspersky has expressed a strong  desire to catch up to Trend Micro.  In fact, Moscow based Kaspersky was listed   as one of only 5 global security companies in the “Leaders” portion of the Gartner 2012 Magic Quadrant for Endpoint Protection Platforms.

Disappointing  Q3 Results for Trend

Trend Micro did not have a great Q3.  First, the good news.  On the non-financial front - The company was issued over a dozen patents in Q3.  They announced   new mobile solutions.  They rolled out their 2013 Internet Security product line.  They     announced their latest iteration of their cloud-based security infrastructure, the Smart Protection Network,

Now for the bad - Year over year sales were down 2%  (Q3) , and net income, down 25%. The  drop in net sales was due to declines in both North America and Europe. Not good signs when given that the economies have been improving in these markets.   Japan had 3% growth.

On a revenue basis, (Pre GAAP before adjusting for deferred revenue) – North America  revenue declined 10% and Europe 8%.  Japan grew by 10%. (Q3 year over year)

Unlike the other major vendors, Trend Micro is heavily dependent on Japan for their revenue.  This grew to 51% in Q3 2012.  North America and Europe had 20% and 16% shares, respectively.  Sales were down in both the enterprise and consumer segments. 

Q4 is unlikely to help Trend.  Net sales are projected to be flat and net income down 41%.

This isn’t a pretty trend for Trend.  Since Kaspersky  has decided to remain a private company, there aren’t many publically available financial numbers for them, but they have to be pleased. If these trends continue, Kaspersky may be able to reach number three in 2013.

Despite their financial miscues, Trend Micro continues to be innovating. There are the patents mentioned above.   This week, Trend Micro announced their  free   Online Security Assessment Tools for Cloud, Cyber & Mobile Security.  These tools are designed to   provide customers with an assessment of their current business' security posture with respect to cloud adoption, consumerization, and targeted cyber attacks.  

Trend Micro hasn’t participated in Virus Bulletin (www.virusbtn.com ) testing since 2008.  They finished second in the AV-comparatives (www.av-comparatives.com ) "September 2012 Antivirus File Detection Test of Malicious software", however.

About Virus Bulletin   www.virusbtn.com

UK based Virus Bulletin started in 1989.  They provide PC users with a regular source of intelligence about computer viruses, their prevention, detection, and removal, and how to recover programs and data following an attack.  The Virus Bulletin website is at www.virusbtn.com

About AV-comparatives     www.av-comparatives.org

AV-Comparatives is an Austrian Non-Profit-Organization, which is providing independent Antivirus software tests free to the public.  Go to their website to view all the great comparative reports and surveys they publish.  A great number of their reports are free.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Status and Future of Symantec


It has to be a sad day when you lose your CEO title and the company stock has its biggest gain since July 2001,   17%.  Symantec replaced Enrique Salem with board chair Steve Bennett on Wednesday.  Symantec stock has been dropping steadily from a 52 week high of $19.81 to a recent low of $13.06.  As of 12:50 Eastern Standard on 7/26, $15.40 (post Salem removal).

"While progress has been made over the last three years in many areas, it was the board's judgment that it was in the best interests of Symantec to make a change in the CEO," said Steve Bennett, chairman, president, and CEO.  Bennett had been running the show at Intuit from 2000 to 2007 before joining Symantec several years ago.  You can't call the Salem removal a witch hunt. It was time for a change.

Below are some 2012 Q1 revenue figures for Symantec

  •     GAAP Revenue of $1.668 billion
  •     Non-GAAP Operating Margin of 26.1%
  •     Non-GAAP Earnings per Share of $0.43
  •     GAAP Deferred Revenue of $3.745 billion
  •     Cash Flow from Operations of $340 million

However, the GAAP revenue was up only 1 percent year-over-year and up 4 percent after adjusting for currency.  Income actually dropped, from $191 million to $172 million


Symantec’s 5-year stock high was in August 2008 at around $22.  Their 5-year low was in October 2008, at around $11.  Note a good year for them.  The fact that the stock is currently $14 demonstrates how stagnant the company has been over the last several years.

 
Symantec’s performance in a  Gartner  Magic Quadrant  is mixed.  They’re not in the Leader’s section of Gartner’s Magic Quadrant for Mobile Data Protection (three competitors are).  They’re a Challenger for Secure Web Gateways (five competitors are in the Leaders portion).  They are the Leader for Data Loss Prevention (with five other companies) and for Endpoint Protection Platforms (with four other companies).  Being in the Leaders portion of a Gartner Magic Quadrant can be screening criteria for companies.  Gartner takes great care in a document explaining how to interpret a  Magic Quadrant. They state  that companies whose products are  in the Challenger, Visionary or Niche sections  of the quadrant may be the best solution for your needs.  Nonetheless, a common sales presentation line is, “And they’re in the Leaders portion of the Gartner Magic Quadrant for ‘fill in the blank’”.


In the OPSWAT June” Industry Market Share Analysis Report”, Symantec is fourth in global  market share, behind Avast, Microsoft,  and ESET. Symantec has 10.3% of the market. They are just ahead of AVG Technologies and Avira.  In North American, Symantec is  second behind Microsoft with 15.1% of the market.  www.opswat.com

Both McAfee (until their acquisition by Intel a couple of years ago) and Symantec have been aggressive in making acquisitions in the last decade.  Possible reasons -  trying to be CA West, expanding product portfolio, plugging gaps in the portfolio,  needing to keep the stock price up, revenue of existing core products stagnant, “buy” decision winning out over “make” decision.  Interestingly enough PGP (a leader in encryption technology), and currently owned by Symantec, was once owned by McAfee.   Buying for the sake of buying doesn't cut it. Enterprise customers and analysts want some visibility into the rationale and roadmap for these.

Depending on the pundit, Symantec should keep leading storage management vendor Veritas.  Alternatively, Symantec should sell Veritas.  If the management team hasn’t figured out how to best integrate   Veritas into the product mix after eight years, spin the company off.  Sell it another company or see if an equity firm like Thoma Bravo is interested.  Thoma Bravo purchased Secure Web Gateway/WAN company Blue Coat Systems and recently sold SonicWall to Dell for about $1.2 billion.   

The management team/existing culture may be one that has lost its mojo.  When their streak of winning VB100 awards was broken a couple of years ago,   the company stopped being tested by Virus Bulletin www.virusbtn.com .  With testing organization AV-comparatives, you can’t choose (cherry pick) which tests to participate in www.av-comparatives.org .  So, Symantec is not one of the twenty two companies included in 2012 AV-Comparatives testing.  This doesn’t benefit Symantec’s customers or their channel partners.  Symantec still participates in AV-test testing and scored 15 out of 18 in March/April certification testing www.av-test.com

Several  years ago, a Symantec marketing  employee chided  companies utilizing the freemium model.  He  mustn’t have realized that Symantec owns PC Tools, another freemium company.  Unfortunately, PC Tools received only one star in AV-comparatives’ most recent Retrospective/Proactive Test (July 2012). 

Some Thoughts
  • More risk taking.  Reward employees and business units who do that.  Make sure that there are employees who know how to and are comfortable doing this. Bring aboard employees who can do this.
  • More  cloud.  Symantec was slow to the game.  Competitor Trend Micro was early. As was Panda. The channel is becoming more comfortable offering cloud and SaaS based solutions. 
  • Further embrace   VM technology.  The fact that Symantec will be at VMWorld in San Francisco in August and in Barcelona in October are good things. Symantec currently offers  a number of VM solutions. 
  • Embrace BYOD - Bring Your Own Device is the acronym du jour.  While Symantec offers mobile and tablet security solutions under both the Norton and Symantec brands, they need to be more visible in promoting these.  BTW – “Protect your stuff” is an interesting tag line in the Norton line but…
  • Pretend you're not one of the 800 pound gorillas. For years, Silicon Valley commuters driving north on 101, would see a Symantec sign as they drove through Santa Clara. If they raised their eyes a little. They'd see that this was virtually next door to McAfee headquarters.  A nice friendly competitive poke. 

A strategy of placing a huge number of yellow boxes in brick office supply stores no longer suffices.  Both Symantec and McAfee   have come to this conclusion in the last couple of years.  Instead of huge, the number is still  “a lot”.  Webroot was using this strategy for a while at Best Buy when they were the “recommended choice” of the Geek Squad (unless you asked them off the record!). Their box count is down dramatically.
 
From a July 25 article in CRN, "The security space is evolving so rapidly that companies that stick with old ways of doing business are going to lose their relevance," said one East Coast channel partner on condition of anonymity. "Symantec has been skating on its reputation for a long time, and that has cost them big time. Maybe this change will help them get their house in order."

From an irreverent perspective, it may be time for Symantec to  tone down the yellow color.  “Men usually perceive yellow as a very lighthearted, 'childish' color, so it is not recommended to use yellow when selling prestigious, expensive products to men – nobody will buy a yellow business suit or a yellow Mercedes.” http://www.color-wheel-pro.com/color-meaning.html
 


Monday, July 23, 2012

Avast Thursday Initial Public Offering Postponed

 From the Original Post - Updates at End of Blog

Antivirus software company Avast will have their Initial Public Offering (IPO) Thursday.  The ticker symbol will be AVST. The roadshow is about at an end! Palo Alto Networks' successful IPO Friday suggests that the IPO  market may be open again.

Avast plans to offer 9 million shares at between $9 and $11 each with this IPO. The price  may be tweaked on Wednesday. The lead underwriters for the IPO are UBS Investment Bank, Deutsche Bank Securities and Jefferies & Co.  Avast uses the freemium strategy for their antivirus software. Avast  develops anti-virus software, specializing in a free version of its product used by consumers. They then offer  upgrades that can be purchased.  Avast is number one in OPSWAT’s most recent world wide industry market share analysis for antivirus software. www.opswat.com
 
James Krapfel of Morningstar said Avast is going public at a time when “the company’s software is installed on 20% of the worldwide consumer and small business PCs.” Krapfel called Avast “a higher quality peer” to rival AVG Technologies AVG  with sales growing at twice AVG’s annual rate.
  
Below is a summary of some of their financial data, revenue, income, etc. Click on it to enlarge.








Avast’s freemium competitors include Avira, AVG Technologies, PC Tools, and Panda.  Microsoft offers a free version of antivirus but no paid versions.  The Avast current installed base in about 159 million. They most recently had 1.72 million downloads on www.download.cnet.com   last week.  
 July 29 updates - Avast was the most popular free  antivirus download on CNET  for the week ending July 29, with 1.69 million downloads.


Updates


 July 30 update - Avast was the most downloaded free AV product on download.com for the week ending July 29 with 1.69 million downloads.

July 25 update - Avast Software  postponed its IPO on Wednesday evening, citing poor conditions. 

AVG Technologies executive JR Smith told  the Financial Times on Thursday that the  IPO situation for CEE tech companies is likely to get worse before it gets any better. “We are a European software company and we are pretty close to what is going on here, and start-ups and those companies looking for additional capital investment will find it tougher for sure over the next 12 to 18 months.”
The Avast  S-1 filed with the SEC   can be viewed at the link below.   Informative reading.

For more information, go to

 

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Avast Files for $90 Million Initial Public Offering (IPO)

After first talking about going public in December, Avast filed an updated S-1   with the SEC (Securities Exchange Commission)  on July  12.  They’ll be trading on Nasdaq   under AVST.  The IPO (Initial Public Offering) will be for $90 million.  Anticipated offering price of the IPO, $9 to $11 per share.  The information in the S-1 lists  their installed base at about 159 million users.  The 190 million figures will probably be disappearing from their web site.  The definition resulting in 190 million may be different, however. When going IPO, accuracy in these docs is kind of importan. Legal people like that. 

Avast  may have wanted to go public earlier in the year.  The Facebook debacle temporarily  sucked the wind out of  the industry’s IPO sails.   The $90 million figure is down 55% from the $200 million figure that was floated earlier this year.  The bookrunners on the deal are   UBS Investment Bank, Deutsche Bank Securities, and Jefferies & Co.   

According to Renaissance Capital, by offering 9.0 million shares at a price range of $9.00 to $11.00, and at the midpoint of the proposed range, Avast Software will command a market value of $850 million.  IMHO, this sounds high.  AVG Technologies’ revenue run rate is approximately $300 million and with a more diversified revenue stream, they went public with a market capitalization of around $700 million.  Annualizing 2012 first quarter revenue of $27 million, and using a 5x multiple, gives a market cap of $540 million.  This is a crude methodology (first link at the bottom of this blog for details). Look for the pricing to result in a positive “pop”.  Facebook lost quite a few friends following the plunge in their stock following opening day.  Negative pops - bad. Unlike.

The Avast  updated S-1 filed with the SEC   can be viewed at the link below.  There must be an unwritten rule that S-1 documents have to run about 160 pages,  before attachments.  The Avast S-1 is  approximately the same length as the S-1 filed by Palo Alto Networks.  The risk factors run about 25 pages.

Like their   Prague/Netherlands based competitor, AVG Technologies, Avast will officially be headquartered in the Netherlands.  “We are incorporated under the laws of the Netherlands and on this basis are subject to Dutch tax laws as a Dutch resident taxpayer.  We believe that we are resident solely in the Netherlands for tax purposes and that we, and in certain cases, the holders of our shares, can rely on this position for purposes of the application of tax treaties concluded by the Netherlands with other jurisdictions.  Read “Double Irish with a Dutch Sandwich – Yummy Way For Corporations to Reduce Federal Taxes”.   http://kensek.blogspot.com/2012/04/double-irish-with-dutch-sandwich-yummy.html

Additional verbiage, probably standard for non US based companies listing on Nasdaq – “As a foreign private issuer whose shares are listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, we have elected to follow certain home country corporate governance practices instead of certain NASDAQ requirements.” “We do not comply with all the provisions of the Dutch Corporate Governance Code.  This may affect your rights as a stockholder.”  These are explained in detail in the S-1.

According the June   2012 “OPSWAT Report on Worldwide Security Industry Market Share Analysis”, Avast is number one in worldwide antivirus market share.  Also in the top 5, Microsoft, Eset, Symantec, and AVG Technologies 

The Avast  free product received 3 stars (out of 3) and finished tenth out of twenty in the March “On-demand Detection of Malicious Software” test done by AV- Comparatives  www.av-comparatives.org .

Below is a snapshot of some of Avast’s financial data (revenue, income, etc.)  for the last several years (click on it to enlarge).  Like AVG, Avira, Microsoft, and PC Tools (somewhat quietly owned by Symantec),  Avast also uses a freemium model.









Avast has a corporate office just north of Silicon Valley in San Mateo, California.  A 20 mile hike to AT&T Ballpark,  for San Francisco Giants  baseball games.  AVG Technologies California employees?  They just have to walk across the street.  Very cool.

Don’t look for any of the Avast  officers or directors to be pictured wearing hoodies during the roadshow on the day they go  public.  The major stockholders are Eduard Kucera (30%), Pavel Baudis (30%), and Summit Partners (22.6%).  Let the public roadshow begin.  HodnÄ› Å¡tÄ›stí.  Pivo prosím.

For additional light reading:


Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Avast Gradually Moving Forward With IPO


July 12 - See an update at 




Avast is gradually taking the steps to undergo an IPO (Initial Public Offering) on the NASDAQ exchange as AVST.  They filed a second amendment to their F-1 with the Security Exchange Commission on May 7.  The amended F-1, 150 plus pages of reading, including 23 pages of risk factors.  Three years of financial statements are included.  2011 revenue was $82.1 million, a nice 69% increase over 2010’s $48.4 million in revenue.   Avast promotes that they have around 160 million users of their products.  According to the OPSWAT 2012 March “Security Industry Market Share Analysis”, Avast has the top spot, with 16.3% of the market.

 
Avast has also now opened a hiring req for a SEC Reporting Manager, operating  out of their San Francisco Bay Area office.  This means Avast has  to be getting serious about the IPO ;).  “The individual in this critical, hands-on position will be based in the San Francisco Bay Area, report to the CFO and have responsibility for compliance with SEC reporting requirements, including preparation of Forms 20-F and 6-K, and Sarbanes-Oxley”.

This person will be traveling to Prague occasionally.  When the financial people from Prague travel to the Bay Area, they will be able to find Czech food http://www.bayczech.com/useful/restaurants/  though there are some rather nice restaurants in the Bay Area!  Foodies are usually happy when they visit.

 No new rumors as to when the IPO will take place. No sightings of executives in hoodies on Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park, or having breakfast at Burk's in Woodside.  Rumors of sightings at mid Peninsula Starbucks.  The date (IMHO) will shift after  Avast people and their external “smartest guys in the room” make any adjustments based on   analysis of the Facebook IPO. "Pops" are nice on the first day of an offering and neither Facebook nor their Prague based competitor AVG Technologies, had these  on their first days. 




Monday, November 21, 2011

October 2011 AV-comparatives.org Whole Product Dynamic Test

The top five products in the AV-Comparatives.org and the "Whole Product Dynamic Real World Test” - October 2011 has some major antivirus and internet security suite vendors switching positions. Only two of the top five from September remained in the top five. The top ones – G Data, Kaspersky, Qihoo, Symantec, and BitDefender. Webroot, PC-Tools, and Avast were the “bottom” performers, rounding out the bottom three. Avira was the top free performer. BlahopÅ™eji.

October Results AV–comparatives.org Whole Product Dynamic Test

1. 99.6 – G Data
2. 99.6 – Kaspersky
3. 99.6 - Qihoo
4. 99.6 – Symantec
5. 99.4 – BitDefender

“Compromised” was the tiebreaker in the above.

September Results Whole Product Dynamic Test


1. 99.7 – BitDefender
2. 99.0 – F-Secure
3. 98.8 – Trend Micros
4. 98.7 – McAfee
5. 98.7 - Symantec

To see complete results for October (twelve more vendors), go to http://www.av-comparatives.org/en/comparativesreviews/dynamic-tests and view the monthly report. More important though, are results over a period of time. You can play with the interactive report.

And the Next Security IPO is…

You know what it means in the United States when holiday decorations start appearing in malls. Thanksgiving is just around the corner, and the IPO rumor mill starts up again. November 17 blog - And the next IT security IPO is… http://blogs.the451group.com/techdeals . What do you believe the prospectus (sic) are?

About AV-comparatives.org - www.av-comparatives.org


AV-Comparatives is an Austrian Non-Profit-Organization, which is providing independent Anti-Virus software tests free to the public.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

AV-comparatives.org Whole Product Dynamic Test – September 2011

The top five products in the AV-Comparatives.org and the "Whole Product Dynamic Real World Test” for September has some major antivirus and internet security suite vendors performing not so well. The top five for September were BitDefender, F-Secure, Trend Micro, McAfee, and Symantec. Avira and K7 dropped out of the top 5. K7 dropped to fourth from the bottom, while Sophos, WebRoot, PC-Tools cannot be smiling, rounding out the bottom three. Avira was the top “free” vendor. This test may not greatly effect revenues, but there are bragging rights in these tests;).

September Results Whole Product Dynamic Test

1. 99.7 – BitDefender
2. 99.0 – F-Secure
3. 98.8 – Trend Micros
4. 98.7 – McAfee
5. 98.7 - Symantec

August Results Whole Product Dynamic Test


1. 99.5 – Trend Micro
2. 99.0 – Symantec
3. 98.4 – Avira
4. 98.4 – BitDefender
5. 97.9 – K7

To see complete results for September (twelve more vendors), go to http://www.av-comparatives.org/en/comparativesreviews/dynamic-tests and view the monthly report. More important though, are results over a period of time. For a one quarter write-up http://www.av-comparatives.org/images/stories/test/dyn/wpdt2011_1_en.pdf

The 2012 versions of antivirus and internet security suites have been rolling out of the last couple of months. These will probably be incorporated into the test bed, replacing the 2011 versions. This test group continues to innovate in their testing. Go to their website to check out the anti-phishing test (to be covered another time).

Go to http://www.av-comparatives.org/en/comparativesreviews/dynamic-tests to play with the interactive table. You can also modify the time period and view results.

About AV-comparatives.org - www.av-comparatives.org

AV-Comparatives is an Austrian Non-Profit-Organization, which is providing independent Anti-Virus software tests free to the public.