AVG Technologies CEO JR Smith Resigns

AVG Technologies' stock fell 11 percent on Friday with the resignation of AVG Technologies CEO JR Smith.  This was the antivirus and internet security vendor’s biggest one-day drop since they went public with their IPO just over a year ago. AVG was downgraded on 3/12 by Morgan Stanley and the stock dropped another  10.3%.  http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avg-technologies-falls-analyst-downgrade-191512922.html

 “JR has been a visionary leader for AVG.  He transformed the company from a small European antivirus company to a successful publicly traded global leader in PC and mobile solutions,” said Dale Fuller, chairman of the supervisory board of AVG. Smith will remain as CEO until a replacement is named.  Chief operating officer John Giamatteo runs day-to-day activities. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130307-715759.html

 

“During my six years as CEO I am proud of what we’ve accomplished: substantially growing the customer base, delivering strong financial performance, successfully leading our IPO and building a world class business and management team,” said Smith in a statement.  http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/07/avg-ceo-resigns.aspx

Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2012 was $95.2 million, compared with   $74.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2011, an increase of 28%.  For the fiscal year 2012, revenue was $356.0 million, compared with $272.4 million in 2011, an increase of 31%.  User numbers were 146 million at December 31, 2012, an increase of 38 million, or 35%, compared with the prior year.  The company is becoming increasingly more dependent on platform revenue (Google and Yahoo).  http://www.darkreading.com/vulnerability-management/167901026/security/news/240150252/avg-technologies-announces-change-to-executive-leadership-team  Few of the reports on latest revenues have pointed out that net income dropped by about 1/2 in fiscal 2012.

AVG Technologies during  the JR Smith Years

Market Share - The installed base first went up, then market share decreased (on the laptop/PC side) as measured by OPSWAT (hello free Microsoft AV).  At one point during Smith’s tenure, they claimed the fourth largest installed base.  Installed base is up again because of tablet/smartphone installations (in part through deals with Huawei in India, and Samsung in the UK).  Downloads on CNET were close to 2 million weekly for a while.  Currently, Avast is ahead of them, with Avira trailing.  Microsoft is ahead of all three. 

Product Line(s) – The number of products increased during Smith’s tenure to include    parental protection (acquisition), cloud storage (acquisition), mobile security (acquisition, initially), PC Tune-up, and AVG Cloud care.  It’s increasingly more difficult to be innovative in consumer internet security as many firms were offering multiple products each with their own permutations of similar functionality, not all related to security.  Buying versus making is a valid business decision.  AVG Technology was late to the game in adding additional functionality to their suites.  They were late in getting involved in the mobile market. 

Toolbars?  Mixed reaction by the consumer marketplace, particularly when the “yes” option is clicked for you. The internet is filled with instructions on how to uninstall various firms’ toolbars.  Google appears to be encouraging firms to move away from the default being opt-in. More revenue through secure search? Maybe........

Product quality – Not the CEO’s responsibility.  The paid products tended to be middle of the road among those tested.  Sixteen out of twenty in a September 2012 AV-Comparatives test.  Fourteen out of Twenty-one in a late 2012 AV-Comparatives Whole Product Dynamic Real-World Protection Test.  10 pass and 2 fail in the las 12 Virus Bulletin VB100 tests they participated in.  The free product has been a PC Magazine favorite. 

Marketing   - mixed.  “We protect us.”  Bad.  We needs instruction in grammar!  “How many toothpicks to stop a tiger?”  Interesting.  An unlimited cloud storage product with a limit when you read the fine print? Come on, marketing people.  Switch to us for  free.  Been there.  Done that.  Amoeba like Facebook friend creatures?  Frightening. 

Product Churn – The bane of every free product.  When you have zero switching costs, it’s easy to switch to the next product.  Autorenewal? Symantec and McAfee got their wrists slapped $$$ for making it hard to cancel.  Other vendors were better about it. 

AVG has  obtained the usual product certifications  with West Coast Labs  and ICSA.  AVG   won SC Magazine and Info Security Product Guide Global Excellence awards in 2010.  Quiet since then. 

US presence - US headquarters has been a game of musical chairs.  Florida.  Then Boston.  Now San Francisco.  San Francisco doesn’t count as Silicon Valley.  However, the employees are much closer to SF Giants games.  You see the AVG’s products in big box office supply stores like Staples and Office depot.  The number of facings is only a fraction of those of Symantec and McAfee.  Consumer AV is very much an online purchase, unless you’re going for the free paid versions (after rebates), that always appear when people start purchasing tax software. 

The IPO (Initial Public Offering) – This wasn’t a stellar IPO for   AVG when they went public in February 2012.  The target range was around 16 to 18.  The stock closed around $13 on its first day.  Blame the smartest people in the room for less than stellar number crunching.  The current stock price as of March 11, $13.75.  The stock has been as low as in the 9’s and has broken 16.  Praha based competitor Avast filed for an IPO and then cancelled.  Kaspersky has decided not to go public for the time being.  It did take the longest time after the rumor mills started about the IPO.  The date, whether it was going to be on NASDAQ, NYSE, London Exchange, or others.  Stock price as of March 11 - $13.62.

Like many firms, the company has benefited from having a presence in the Netherlands (dual headquarters with the Czech Republic (better beer) and Ireland (that tax reduction thing) http://kensek.blogspot.com/2012/04/double-irish-with-dutch-sandwich-yummy.html   

But then, larger firms just park money overseas.  By sheltering their assets overseas, Silicon Valley companies such as Apple, Google, eBay, and Hewlett-Packard are able to reduce their annual taxes in some cases by billions of dollars, according to a Center for Investigative Reporting analysis of the 50 largest firms’ financial statements filed in 2012.  http://blogs.kqed.org/newsfix/2013/02/13/cisco-apple-hp-oracle-google-avoid-paying-billions-in-taxes/

 

In the end, an AVG (A Very Good) run for Smith.  After all, during his tenure, how many CEO’s did HP have?  How many did Symantec have?  No stories about “escorts” showing up at parties in Las Vegas.  No children being pulled on stage to sing at company all hands meetings.

Czech funk-soul band Monkey Business may now have to find other corporate gigs.

AVG Technologies 2012 Revenue - View Far From Investment Firms

The below is a quick look at AVG Technologies’ 2012 revenues.  The bulk of the figures below are from AVG Technologies Form 6-K, available on their web site.  Disclosure - I can comfortably talk with the “smartest guys in the room” and even own multiple suits.  This is not a look at the marketing strategy.  Just some bullet point observations from afar about revenue, net income, cash.

March 7 addendum -  CEO JR Smith  resigns -  AVG Technologies N.V. (AVG) said J.R. Smith will step down as chief executive after a six-year tenure at the helm of the Internet and mobile-security provider, which is conducting a search for his successor. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130307-715759.html  He is remaining  on the board.

• Overall revenue up 31% to $356 million - Good.  Subscription based revenue was up 12% while platform based revenue was up 65%.  Platform based revenue now comprises  45% of AVG’s revenue (Can you say Google?).  
  
• In a Seeking Alpha article - “AVG: Feb 1st Google Policy Updates Threaten AVG's Growth Engine, Signals Steep Downside”.  Google would require companies to make use of “opt-out” instead of having “opt-in” checked automatically on the customer’s behalf.  The author of the article, Eiad Asbahi, is forecasting reduced revenue for AVG because of this.  http://kensek.blogspot.com/2013/02/avg-technologies-ipo-one-year-birthday.html
• Net income dropped 44% to $46 million in 2012 from 2011.  This usually isn’t a good thing, especially when revenue is up 31%.  Not a sustainable model.
• Gross profit margin dropped 3% from 89% to 86%.  Most industries would be envious, even with the decline.
• From Motley Fool. Short shares as a percent of float 18.6%.  For Symantec, the figure is 1.6%.
• From Motley Fool.  Short shares increase between January 31 and February 15, 278.5%.  Ouch for both of the figures from Motley Fool.  One would like investors to have confidence that the stock will go up.  http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/04/shorts-are-piling-into-these-stocks-should-you-22.aspx
• Current ratio Symantec – 1.06.  Current ratio – AVG Technologies  - .54.
• Happiness is positive cash flow -AVG has been generating cash.

An interesting statement in the notes - "The Company’s profit and loss tax charge varies from period to period and has shown significant variations from its cash tax charge.  In particular, the Company’s entry into an innovation tax regime in the Netherlands resulted in a significant tax credit in June 2011, which will be reversed in future periods."  You have to love companies with offices in the Netherlands, and Ireland, and bank in the Cayman Islands.  All legal.  All companies with some combination of these should be required to state the number of square feet dedicated to the company  that they rent in these locations. No counting shared conference rooms. And a picture of the Post Office box.   For a discussion on some of this:  

 http://kensek.blogspot.com/2012/04/double-irish-with-dutch-sandwich-yummy.html

It should be an interesting year two for AVG Technologies as a public company following their IPO (initial public offering).  They appear to have an increasing reliance on securing mobile devices.  They just announced a deal with Samsung in the UK for purchasers of Samsung mobile users to download AVG’s mobile product for  free .  On the laptop/PC side and  on the free download side, Avast had 1.21 million downloads on www.download.com  versus 0.87 million for AVG Free Antivirus for the week ending March 3.  However,  CEO JR Smith has stated that AVG has been diversifying their product line. Perhaps this gap compared to Avast  is to be expected. Avast cancelled their IPO over a year ago.

Gartner Magic Quadrant for Endpoint Security - 2012

Addendum - Information about the 2013 report is at http://kensek.blogspot.com/2014/02/gartner-magic-quadrant-for-endpoint.html

Gartner has released their 2012 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Endpoint Security, ID:G00239869.  Five performers are in the leaders quadrant.  Their approximate order in the 2012 report:  Symantec, McAfee, Sophos, Kaspersky, and Trend Micro.  Microsoft, who has built up a large endpoint market share in the last couple of years with their free consumer endpoint product, was the only company in the Challenger portion of the grid for the 2012 Magic Quadrant for Endpoint Protection.  Congrats to these five companies.  Analysts for the report - Peter Firstbrook, John Girard, and Neil MacDonald.

Always interesting goings on with firms in the world of security, even those in the leaders portion of the magic quadrant. Symantec replaced CEO Enrique Salem with Tom Bennett in July.

Companies in  the 2011 leaders portion of the quadrant were  Symantec, McAfee, Sophos, Trend Micro, and Kaspersky. http://kensek.blogspot.com/2012/02/gartner-magic-quadrant-for-endpoint.html

Always interesting goings on with firms in the world of security.  Palo Alto Networks "finally" went public  in 2012 and had a nice first few days pop in their stock price. More traditional firewall companies started releasing Next Generation Firewalls (NGFW's).  Trend Micro was named a leader in the email content security arena by Forrester. Symantec replaced CEO Enrique Salem with Tom Bennett in July. Kaspersky and Trend switched spots as Kaspersky continues their mission to surpass Trend Micro in everything end point.   Symantec, you may want to appear in those AV-comparatives.org security tests, now ;). Once Kaspersky passes Trend Micro.....

Beyond Trust was the overall lowest in the quadrant with respect to ability to execute.  They purchased eEye in the first half of 2012.  One of the cautions raised by Gartner about Check Point (in the visionary portion of the quadrant) was Check Point's dependence on Kaspersky Lab's engine and signature updates continues to challenge enterprise buyers to differentiate it from Kaspersky Lab (note, ck – not a technological weakness, just a differentiator weakness).

There is a combination of seventeen companies in this report.  The minimum functionality   to appear:

• Detection and cleaning of malware (for example, viruses, spyware, rootkits, Trojans, worms), a personal firewall, and HIPS for servers and PCs
• Centralized management, configuration and reporting capabilities for all products evaluated in this research, sufficient to support companies of at least 5,000 geographically dispersed endpoints
• Global service and support organizations to support products

A good read for people is “Magic Quadrants and MarketScopes: How Gartner Evaluates Vendors Within a Market” http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?doc_cd=154752   Sometimes a  leader isn’t the best solution for a particular customer.  Despite that, there are many presentations where the vendor uses being in the leaders portion   as a reason to buy from that particular vendor. 

The   Magic Quadrant for Endpoint Security 2012 is available from Gartner.  Some of the vendors license rights to provide it to customers, as well.

AV-Comparatives Anti-virus Comparative Summary Report 2012, BitDefender Named Product of the Year

Test group AV-Comparatives has released their Anti-virus Comparative Summary Report 2012.  This quite thorough 180 page  report contains a summary of the winning products for the test they performed in 2012, and  also contains an extensive 150 plus page user interface review section.A great report to download.

On an overall basis, AV-Comparatives, gave eight company's products their Top Rated designation.  In alphabetical order, these were  Avast, Avira,  Bitdefender,  BullGuard, ESET, F-Secure, G DATA, and  Kaspersky. Congratulations to these companies! 

For the individual   tests, the 2012 report lists the Gold, Silver, and Bronze Medal recipients.   To view the Silver and Bronze recipients, you’ll have to download the free report. Below are the Gold Medal Recipients.

Gold Medal Recipients - Summary Report 2012

• Product of the Year – Bitdefender (G Data and Kaspersky, were awarded Bronze and Silver)
• File Detection – Avira
• Whole-Product “Real-World” Dynamic Protection - BitDefender (a nice interactive report)
• Proactive (Heuristic) Detection/Protection - A tie.  BitDefender and Kaspersky
• False Positive – Microsoft
• Overall Performance (Low System Impact) – Webroot
• Anti-Phishing Protection – BitDefender
• Malware Removal – A tie, BitDefender and Kaspersky

Congratulations to the Gold Medal recipients listed above and to the Silver and Bronze Medal Recipients listed in the 2012  report!

AC-comparatives encourages people trying to select a product to go to the vendor’s websites, download a trial version, and try products for themselves.  Many vendors have multiple flavors of internet security suites, each with their own spin on additional features.  Many offer multi-user and multi-year licenses.  One thing not to do.  Don’t chose based on how many Facebook Fans like the product.   

Symantec doesn’t appear in this report.  In order to be tested and reported on by AV-Comparatives, vendors have to agree to participate in all the tests.  Symantec chose not to do this.  Hence, they’re not listed in any of the tests. Steve Bennett.This could be the year.

The report also has a great  link that lets you select a year and view a one page report listing all vendors and how many stars they received for each test they were in. The most stars a vendor could receive on a single test was  three.  They could also receive two, one, and tested.  A perfect score for the year – twenty seven.  BitDefender received twenty six  in 2012.  

Freemium Vendors

The freemium vendors in the report were Avast, AVG Technologies, Avira, Panda, and PC Tools.  As mentioned above,  nine different tests with a potential total of twenty seven stars. 

• Avast – 22 stars
• Avira – 22 stars (yes, a tie)
• Panda - 19 stars
• AVG Technologies – 14 stars
• PC Tools – 13 stars

Avast and Avira received the same number of stars in seven of the nine tests and were both among the AV-Comparatives eight top products for 2012.   Avast wins the Czech crown for the year.  

About AV-comparatives     www.av-comparatives.org

AV-Comparatives is an Austrian Non-Profit-Organization.  They provide independent Antivirus software tests free to the public.  Go to their website to view all the great comparative reports and surveys they publish.  A great number of their reports are free.

OPSWAT Market Share Report - Antivirus Market Analysis: December 2012

OPSWAT Inc. has released their December 2012 market share report, “Antivirus Market Analysis: December 2012”.  The data OPSWAT used for this market share report was collected between November 16, 2011 and November 15, 2012.  It's worthwhile to check out the detailed report.  You can also learn more about OPSWAT, their reports, products and some free tools they have available.  (To be discussed on another blog).  One aspect of this market share report is that it doesn’t go into the market shares these vendors have on tablets (and smart phones).  This will become increasingly more relevant in 2013.   

A Global Analysis

Avast has to be happy.  They’re the global market share leader, though Microsoft is catching up.  They maintain nice leads over the other well-known freemium antivirus vendors, Avira and AVG Technologies.  AVG Technologies may not care as much since their    revenue stream  from Google and Yahoo will become increasingly more important (a separate discussion).  In some respects, the below isn’t great for Kaspersky since one of their corporate objectives is to surpass Trend Micro in total revenues. 

OPSWAT Market Share Report Top Five  

The Top Five in antivirus vendor market share were Avast (17.5%), Microsoft (16.8%), ESET (10.8%), Symantec (10.5%), and Avira (10.4%).     

Congratulations to the Top Five!  Largest market share loss, AVG Technologies at 1.3%.  AVG has been getting a lot of downloads of their free  (and paid) products running on Android, however.   This product came from their acquisition of DroidSecurity.  DroidSecurity (was first and the market leader)  had over 2.5 million downloads of their products prior to the 2010 acquisition. Avira, Avast, and Norton also offer free Android solutions.

http://kensek.blogspot.com/2012/12/avg-updates-its-antivirus-for-android.html

 

You can click on the above to enlarge it.

In the September report, the order of the Top Five vendors:  Avast, Microsoft, Avira, and AVG Technologies.

Avast had cancelled an IPO in late July.  You have to wonder when that will take place.  http://kensek.blogspot.com/2012/07/avast-to-have-their-initial-public.html

A North America Centric View

Microsoft has a pretty incredible 32.0% share, gaining 10%.  The others in the Top Five in order, Symantec, Avast, AVG Technologies, and ESET.  Largest loss, AVG Technologies at 1.7%.  Symantec and Avast achieved small gains in share of 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively.  Microsoft has quickly become the 800-pound gorilla in Antivirus and Free Antivirus marketshare.

You can click on the above to enlarge it.

But How Well Do These Products Perform in third Party Testing?

That’s always an important question.  In AV-Comparatives September Anti-Virus Comparative “File Detection Test of Malicious Software”, the top five products overall were from,  in order Avira, Trend Micro, F-Secure, Kaspersky, and Bitdefender.  ESET was 15^th, Microsoft was 17^th .Symantec hasn’t been part of 2012 testing (they wanted to pick and choose tests to participate in. )

 http://kensek.blogspot.com/2012/10/av-comparatives-file-detection-test-of.html

All of the December top five with the exception of Microsoft (didn’t participate) received October VB100 Awards.  http://www.virusbtn.com/vb100/archive/summary
 

What about Correlation with 3rd Party Real World Dynamic Testing?

The short answer, there’s no correlation.  From the  December AV-Comparatives “Whole Product Dynamic ‘Real World’ Protection Test",  Avira (8^th) Avast (9^th) and ESET (11^th), all received two stars, while BitDefender, G Data, Qihoo, Kaspersky and BullGuard all received three stars.

An issue for all these products is product churn.  Free competitive upgrades are often available.  With free products, switching costs to another free product is zero.  On www.download.com at CNET, Avast had 1.39 million downloads for the week  ending December 9, while AVG had 0.97 million downloads.  Annualizing these come to about 52 million downloads each. Major churn "has" to be occurring, or a product is downloaded to fix a problem an already installed product missed, and then removed.   

About OPSWAT www.opswat.com   

Founded in 2002, OPSWAT is the industry leader in software management SDKs, interoperability certification, and multiple-engine scanning solutions.

OPSWAT market share reports are available at http://www.opswat.com/media/reports   

About AV-Comparatives.org   

AV-Comparatives is an Austrian Non-Profit-Organization, which provides independent Anti-Virus software tests free to the public.  www.av-comparatives.org